The unwinnable item (how to spot and prepare for)

Each Black Friday stores try to allure you to go and spend most (if not all) of the time on them. They know that you have a wad of cash (ok, at least some disposable income) ready to be spent. That you've been waiting for a long time for this day, that you've been doing your homework, and that you're ready to spend.

In all... a very special customer that wants to BUY...

No browsing the aisles, no window shopping, Black Friday shoppers are the real deal. And you can see how they try to get your attention. Some like Kohls, offer free coffee at 5:00am, others offer doorbuster specials (valid for only 2 hours).

Which is all fine, but there is one particular trick that you must pay attention to. It's what I called (Drum roll please....)

"The Unwinnable Item"
In almost all the stores, there will be an item that its price defies all convention, that is so enticingly low that it's too good to be true. When you find the item, you online, check for reviews, see that is not a "inferior product" or a "leftover piece of junk", and then you wonder..."why?"

It is true that on Black Friday every store is getting its name out there, and making deep discounts. But advertising something that might even be considered a "loss?" what gives?

The truth is, that in Black Friday, the most money spent will be in that first hour of shopping. Period. As each store try to grab your eyeballs, they know that if they can get you in the door even with an item that they're not making money on (in fact they might be losing money on selling the item, for those freakonomics out there that's the infamous quoted "loss-leader") you'll be spending most of your money there, and they will recoup the difference of what they've been losing because you'll be there.

And that would be a fair game, except for the fact that you will very unlikely get that deeply discounted item. The reason is simple. If it's so good of an offer, everyone will want it. And if everyone wants it, there is (at most) 20 or 30 stocked items on a particular store (even less). Which means that there will be a lot more competition for that item than others. More people who were not looking for that item will try to add it to their shopping list.

The end-result is that, unless you're willing to start making a line on Thursday around 8:00pm (sometimes earlier), you most likely will not get that item. Best-Buy and Fry's are notorious for doing this. Last time Fry advertised an actual core 2 laptop for around 350$ (unheard of). Best Buy had great laptop promotions but they are usually gone by 1:00am (Best-buy special information coming up).

Now don't get me wrong, all in all this is the game. If you want to really really get that particular item, then by all means, go and wait. But if you like to distribute your wealth a little more, the strategy that I recommend is more of a hedge.

"Don't go to a store ONLY for the unwinnable item"
If you do, you'll be deeply dissapointed, and you might not get any other good Black Friday items at all. It's ok to "try" to get an unwinnable item, just don't plan for it, and have your "list" ready on the particular store.

"Learn how the unwinnable items are distributed"
See if you can figure out what does the company do to distribute high-demand items. Most will give you a voucher which you can then exchange for the particular item. Other require you to do special "lines" to claim the item. Best Buy was notorious for doing this. While people were waiting around midnight on Black Friday, the Best Buy employees will go out and distribute vouchers to the people in the lines. If you went at 3:30am, and didn't know this, you would think that you might have a chance when in fact, everything was already settled way before you started waiting.

"Learn how to spot the unwinnable item"
There will be greatly priced stuff all over Black Friday, so how to distinguish the unwinnable one? It is mostly just the price. If it's way too low or if you think "I gotta get me some of that" over and over again, then you found it. Unwinnable items can be at either side of the price spectrum. It could be Laptops, Blu-ray players, queen size bed sets, anything. The only rule is that its price is just too little and the item is not a bad item.

"You may find the unwinnable items on ebay (for a price)"
Even if you really had your heart set on the unwinnable items, you might still get it (with a premium) from Ebay or Craigslist. Undoubetly some items end up listed there (either with a higher listed price, or less parts, or both). So you can decide if the deal is still good for you.

All in all, prepare for contingencies. Don't set your heart on an unwinnable item. Keep an eye on them, and remember that there are other things that you are looking for as well.